Stratfor.com is a site that comments on Geopolitical issue around world.
They have been speculating of late about possible Indian attack on Pakistan.
The general opinion in right-of-center / nationalist / "non-secular" circles is that this is impossible.
The general idea is that the UPA govt.:
a) Does not have will / desire to implement this.
b) Is incapable of staking Muslim vote bank, that is the back bone of Congress votes - and more so since Muslim voters have started returning back to Congress now (consider relatively poor showing of BSP - they got little Muslim votes).
I have a contrarian view. My view is that in view of voting patterns post Mumbai attack where in Congress governments were voted in Rajasthan and Delhi, just a few days after Mumbai, would promote following thinking in UPA:
a) Many Hindus believe only Congress can provide security and stability to the country (I know many of you are rolling on ground laughing, but believe me fellows, there are people who believe that crap)
b) If they can launch attacks, they can revive Indira Gandhi = Durga ma = liberation of East Pakistan (and slaughter / rape / murder of 600, 000 Hindus - but that is a separate post) theory for Sonia Gandhi (I know even I feel like puking at the mere thought but I am listing a possibility).
c) In 1971, post Bangladesh creation, Mrs. Indira Gandhi had claimed "I do not need Muslim votes". The public mobilisation and voter momentum was such that she could say that. If Indian Army could again execute such a campaign, Congress could ride home single handedly (consider NDA win post Kargil - inspite of hostile media).
If such a military attack has to become a possibility, when would that likely to be.
My guess is ~ March end.
There are reasons. India has to attack before snow melts. That puts an outer limit of April. The other constraint is a certain time required by Indian Army for its logistics movements and like. This would be a min ~ 3 months as per my understanding.
Politically speaking, the war should be near enough to Lok Sabha elections for Congress to derive sufficient mileage. This again makes it March end timing for attack.
Please do not imagine that Indian forces can not initiate attack. The email forwards about India never attacked anyone etc. are for public consumption.
We did it in 1971. Peshwa Baji Rao's quote was "Night is not for sleeping. It is for attacking enemies"... so given political support, we could attack again.
Imagine the political dividend for Sonia Maino / Christian missionaries if they pull this off. This is something Mr. Vajpayee should have done post Parliament attack.
Why are life's choices so tough.
Bush was great for taking happiness of Jehadis but his administration was worst in terms of pushing Christian evangelists to India (Do read this expose on Christian missionaries by Tehelaka). Obama would not push missionaries to convert me but would be soft on Jehadis as well.
India Army making mince meat of Pakistanis would be lovely (and while they do that, God, could a stray bullet make a certain Ms. Barkha Dutt meet her maker) but almost-certain follow up victory of Congress and Christian missionaries and selling of Indian interests (the Nuclear deal / Telecom spectrum loot) would be horrible for the country.
प्रभु अब तो कल्कि अवतार लो।